Wed, 22 March 2023
Hello, this is Hall T. Martin with the Startup Funding Espresso -- your daily shot of startup funding and investing.
The expectation bias is defined by Wikipedia as the tendency for experimenters to believe, certify, and publish data that agree with their expectations for the outcome of an experiment, and to disbelieve, discard, or downgrade the corresponding weightings for data that appear to conflict with those expectations.
Startups select market and customer data that aligns with their own view which may or may not represent market reality.
Ralph Waldo Emerson once wrote, “People only see what they are prepared to see.”
To overcome the expectation bias, consider the following:
Recognize the expectation bias and how your attention moves to evidence that supports your current beliefs.
Actively question what you see and what conclusions you draw from it.
Review your assumptions to see if they still hold true.
Look for conflicting information and probe further into it to understand how it may impact your view.
Examine the source of the information to see how credible it is or is not.
Be willing to see the data from another side.
Consider a different potential outcome and imagine what that would look like.
This will help overcome the expectation bias and give a clearer picture of the market.
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